Sunday, January 1, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 02nd January 2012



On Friday, NIFTY made a Long Black Candlestick Pattern.  A positive start, a dull, range-bound morning, followed by a plunge in the red to the day’s lows to close near the day’s point – this can sum up the day for the markets. NIFTY witnessed a flat opening in the positive terrain and within few minutes of opening it marked a high of 4690.45 for the day. It traded very range bound (from 4690-to 4650 levels) till the end of morning session. It was not able to touch the levels of 4700 too. However, the afternoon witnessed a bevy of sellers, which pushed NIFTY to its day’s low level of 4608.90, but it did not breach the level of 4600. OIL & GAS Sector was the most battered one, whereas, PHARMA, IT, CONSUMER DURABLES and PSU Sectors ended in Green for the day.  Finally, NIFTY ended at 4624.30, much below the crucial weekly support of 4650, which could invite more selling pressure in the forthcoming trading sessions.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has again dipped below its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4450 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4800 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis, so that Investors can be allowed to enter into the markets. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of December. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of December will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION.  

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is again trading below all its moving averages. The 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average), 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is at 5278.45, 4940.25 and 4751.41, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.


What does Indicators Say?
                                  

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 39.02 and 41.52, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 


2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 100.51 and 80.66, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 17.74, -DI: 27.74, ADX: 19.50: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.


4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the level of  200-Days SMA, but has crossed its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5278.45, 4940.25 and 4751.41, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (30th December, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 178.15 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 42.59 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 622.19 Crore and of Rs. 2276.82 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 2645.21 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 272.45 Crore and of Rs. 20.87 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 109.00 Crore and of Rs. 141.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 10.10 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

SESAGOA:        Can touch the levels of 167/169, if crosses the level of 164.

      DLF:                Can dip to the levels of 179/178, if breaches the level of 183.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4650 / 4680 / 4720 levels. At the same time, 4580 / 4550 / 4520 will act as major intraday support levels.   

No comments:

Post a Comment