Monday, January 2, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 03rd January 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Bullish Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Pattern.  It indicates that now the shorts are increasingly uneasy with their bearish positions. If the market opens higher next day, many shorts will have a strong incentive to cover their short positions. However, a confirmation of the trend reversal implied by this pattern by either a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day is still suggested, to be on the safe side. NIFTY started off trade on a positive note after the government decided to allow foreigners to directly buy stocks in Indian equity markets. However, it fell within an hour as investors appeared unconvinced that this decision would spur inflows, as global risk appetite continued to remain subdued. NIFTY marked a low of 4588.05 for the day, breaching the support of 4600, but maintained well above the 4580 levels. Later, though it recovered from the lower levels and re-entered the green zone, the upturn hardly lasted for minutes. Thereafter, in the late afternoon session, strong buying interest barged into the markets, pulling NIFTY to its intraday high of 4645.95, but it could not even touch the level of 4650. CONSUMER DURABLES, OIL & GAS and IT Sectors were the major gainers for the day, whereas, FMCG, AUTO and POWER Sectors ended in Red. Finally, for the day, NIFTY ended at 436.75, again below the crucial weekly support of 4650, which could invite more selling pressure in the forthcoming trading sessions.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has again dipped below its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4720 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis, so that Investors can be allowed to enter into the markets. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate for the month of December. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of December will be announced in UK. US will be coming out with Construction Spending for the month of November, ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices Paid for the month of December.  

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is again trading below all its moving averages. The 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average), 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is at 5274.41, 4932.24 and 4740.49, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.

What does Indicators Say?
                                   

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 40.03 and 41.22, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 105.04 and 85.54, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 16.98, -DI: 28.10, ADX: 19.87: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the level of  200-Days SMA, but has crossed its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5274.41, 4932.24 and 4740.49, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (02nd January, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 93.87 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 142.47 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 60.78 Crore and of Rs. 628.55 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 646.74 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 181.18 Crore, of Rs. 86.37 Crore and of Rs. 9.13 Crore was witnessed in Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 419.15 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures.

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 11.35 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

INFY:                Can touch the levels of 2845/2855, if crosses the level of 2820.

BAJAJ-AUTO:   Can dip to the levels of 1445/1435, if breaches the level of 1475.
HEROMOTOCO: Can dip to the levels of 1820/1810, if breaches the level of 1835.

Pre Market Calls:

JSWSTEEL: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 536 for the TARGETS of 548/555, with the STRICT SL of 529.

ORCHIDCHEM: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 135 for the TARGETS of 138/140, with the STRICT SL of 133.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5080 / 5120 / 5150 levels. At the same time, 5020 / 4980 / 4950 will act as major intraday support levels. 

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