Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 04th January 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick Pattern, which signifies that it was a typical bull day and strength of the bulls is enough to cause some concern among the bears. Yesterday’s move of NIFTY and the formation of this candle confirmed the formation of Bullish Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Pattern, formed the previous day. It indicated that now the shorts are increasingly uneasy with their bearish positions. If the market opens higher next day, many shorts will have a strong incentive to cover their short positions. However, a confirmation of the trend reversal implied by this pattern is by either a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day is still suggested. NIFTY started off trade at intraday lows, albeit in green. Thereafter, it kept moving northwards till the closing bell. NIFTY marked a high of 4773.10 for the day. It kept on crossing all its resistances (4720 and 4750) one after the other successfully. METAL, CAPITAL GOODS, REALTY & INFRA and BANKING & FINANCE Sectors were the Star Performers for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended strongly at 4765.80.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA yesterday, on the closing basis, but it is still trading below its 50-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4850 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis, so that Investors can be allowed to enter into the markets. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Monetary Base for the month of December. Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of December will be announced in GERMANY. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be announcing its Purchasing Manager Index and Consumer Price Index for the month of December. M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit, Net Lending to Individuals for the month of November and PMI Construction for the month of December will be announced in UK. US will be announcing its MBA Mortgage Applications, Factory Orders for the month of November and Total Vehicle Sales for the month of December.

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4742.85 on closing basis, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA of 5270.58 and 4924.76, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.

What does Indicators Say?
                                    

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 49.40 and 42.86, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 97.69 and 87.97, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 24.45, -DI: 25.35, ADX: 18.58: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.
4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA on the closing basis yesterday, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5270.58, 4924.76 and 4742.85, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (03rd January, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 255.39 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1165.27 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 157.61 Crore and of Rs. 866.41 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of ` 881.55 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 765.93 Crore, of Rs. 35.10 Crore and of Rs. 373.42 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 9.19 Crore was witnessed in Stock Options.

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 17.90 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 858/868, if crosses the level of 840.
DLF:                Can touch the levels of 195/197, if crosses the level of 192.
DRREDDY:        Can touch the levels of 1630/1640, if crosses the level of 1610.
GRASIM:           Can touch the levels of 2490/2500, if crosses the level of 2460.
ICICIBANK:        Can touch the levels of 745/755, if crosses the level of 730.
SBIN:               Can touch the levels of 1735/1745, if crosses the level of 1705.
SIEMENS:         Can touch the levels of 678/682, if crosses the level of 667.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 94.60/95.80, if crosses the level of 92.70.

Pre Market Calls:

TECHM: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 600 for the TARGETS of 615/622, with the STRICT SL of 592.

ALBK: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 125 for the TARGETS of 128/130, with the STRICT SL of 123.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4820 / 4850 / 4880 levels. At the same time, 4720 / 4680 / 4650 will act as major intraday support levels.

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