On
Friday, NIFTY made a Doji Candlestick
Pattern, with a very thin real body, showing indecision about the direction
of the market and it represents a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Doji
simply shows that prices has moved above and below the opening price during the
day, but then the security closed either exactly at or very near the opening
price. The overall result is a standoff. It shows that neither the bulls nor
the bears were able to gain control during the day and it is possible that a
turning point can develop soon. It was a Big day for the markets in terms of
news flows. In the morning INFY announced its Fourth Quarter Results and then
IIP (Index of Industrial Production) for the month of February were announced
along with the CPI Inflation for the month of March. Infosys' fourth quarter
net profit rose 3% (YoY) and 1% (QoQ) to Rs 2,394 crore, helped by higher other
income and lower income tax expenses. As soon as the results were announced,
the shares of the company tanked to nearly 21 percent to close the day at Rs
2295.45, losing Rs 622. IIP came at 0.60%. The bounce in the industrial output
has come due to contribution from consumer goods sector, which turned positive
for the first time in a year at 0.5 percent. Retail inflation declined to 10.39%
in March, snapping the five month rising trend, as prices of vegetables and
protein based items eased. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was
at 10.91% in February. After the announcement of INFY’s Numbers NIFTY witnessed
a Gap Down Opening of almost 75 points and then further made a cut of deep 99
points, dipping to the day’s low of 5494.90. But, after the announcement of key
Economic Data NIFTY managed to recover from the day’s low and marked a high of
5544.50. Again with a soft opening of European Markets, NIFTY slipped and
finally closed at 5528.55 for the day. The session was again full of
volatility, providing excellent opportunities for swing traders to earn on both
the sides. REALTY & INFRA, BANKING & FINANCE, CAPITAL GOODS and FMCG Sectors
were the gainers of the day, pushing NIFTY higher from the day’s low level. Finally,
NIFTY ended at 5339.75 for the day.
Technically, a Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn
from the Low of 4770.35 (04th June, 2012) to the High marked 6111.80
by NIFTY (29th January, 2013). NIFTY made a high of 5610.65 on 10th
April, 2013 and tried to touch the levels of 5599.37 (38.20% Level of
Retracement). This level acted as a very strong resistance for NIFTY on the
closing basis, and it reverted swiftly from that level. Now, the level of 5599.37
(31.80% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by
NIFTY. The levels of 5441.08 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the
immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY is now trading below all its Moving
Averages. The 20-Days EMA as well as the 200-Days SMA are acting as a good
resistance for it right now on closing basis. Unless NIFTY closes above these
levels with smart gains, even a short-term pull-back cannot be expected. On the
contrary, 20-Days EMA is about to cross the 200-Days SMA from upside, which is
yet again another Bearish Signal, confirmation of which is still awaited. When
a Short Term Moving Average crosses a Longer Term Moving Average from upside,
it is considered to be a Bearish Signal. Now, if the level of 5520 is breached
on closing basis, 5460/5430 levels are on the cards.
As, Earnings Season has begun all over the Globe, some of
the Quarterly Earnings on which focus has to be given are:
U.S.: Citigroup Inc
INDIA: CMC
Some of the Economic Happenings on which a Glance is
necessary are:
JAPAN: Industrial Production for the month of February (MoM) and
(YoY) Basis and Capacity Utilization for the month of February.
INDIA: WPI Inflation for the month of March.
EUROPE: Trade Balance for the month of February.
U.S.: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing
Market Index for the month of April, Net Long-Term TIC Flows and Total Net TIC
Flows for the month of February.
Still, for the overall market a very cautious approach of
TRADING is recommended, as INDIA is facing Political Uncertainty as well Fund
Outflow from FIIs through ETFs and even Global Economic Scenario is again
getting worsen, whether it be EUROPE or The U.S. Small and quick profits should
be booked either on Short side or on Long side. Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to make good use of their money and hunt on for Jewels
which are right now trading either at their 52-week’s low level or at the life
time low levels.
What does Indicators Say?
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days):
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 36.23 and 36.37, respectively. The indicator is now reverting from its oversold zone.
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 108.58 and 89.49, respectively. The indicator is now reverting from its oversold zone.
3. +DI: 15.03, -DI: 31.94, ADX: 27.98: The Negative Directional Index is trading above the Positive Directional Index, and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TODAY:
AMBUJACEM: Can touch the levels of 179/181, if crosses the level of 176.
ASIANPAINT: Can touch the levels of 4720/4760, if crosses the level of 4670.
AXISBANK: Can touch the levels of 1285/1295, if crosses the level of 1270.
BHEL: Can touch the levels of 183/185, if crosses the level of 180.
HDFCBANK: Can touch the levels of 654/660, if crosses the level of 644.
COALINDIA: Can dip to the levels of 296/294, if breaches the level of 300.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5550 / 5575 / 5600 levels. At the same time, 5480 / 5440 / 5415 will act as major intraday support levels.
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