Monday, April 15, 2013

Nifty Outlook for 16th April 2013


Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, showing buying pressure in the market. NIFTY recovered from seven-month lows after slowing inflation and lower crude and gold prices led to hopes that the central bank will likely cut interest rates at its May review. NIFTY witnessed a southwards Opening of almost 20 points and dipped lower till the levels of 5500.30, due to weak Global Cues. China reported that its gross domestic product for the January-through-March quarter grew 7.7% from a year earlier, less than forecasts calling for growth of 8%, while industrial production in April slowed to 8.9%, the weakest in more than a year. But before the announcement of WPI Inflation Numbers in India, NIFTY rebounded from the lowest point of the day, pushed up mainly by BANKING & FINANCE and OIL & GAS Sectors. In fact, these were the biggest gainers for the day. NIFY marked a high of 5592.85 for the day. Wholesale price inflation cooled to 5.96% in March, lower than 6.84% in February. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5568.40 for the day, maintain the level of 5545.

Technically, a Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the Low of 4770.35 (04th June, 2012) to the High marked 6111.80 by NIFTY (29th January, 2013). NIFTY made a high of 5610.65 on 10th April, 2013 and tried to touch the levels of 5599.37 (38.20% Level of Retracement). This level acted as a very strong resistance for NIFTY on the closing basis, and it reverted swiftly from that level. Now, the level of 5599.37 (31.80% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. The levels of 5441.08 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY is now trading below all its Moving Averages. The 20-Days EMA as well as the 200-Days SMA are acting as a good resistance for it right now on closing basis. Unless NIFTY closes above these levels with smart gains, even a short-term pull-back cannot be expected. On the contrary, 20-Days EMA is about to cross the 200-Days SMA from upside, which is yet again another Bearish Signal, confirmation of which is still awaited. When a Short Term Moving Average crosses a Longer Term Moving Average from upside, it is considered to be a Bearish Signal. Now, if the level of 5520 is breached on closing basis, 5460/5430 levels are on the cards. NIFTY is range bound currently. 5600 – 5480 is the range in which it is trading between, a decisive move above or below this range will decide the direction of the market.

As, Earnings Season has begun all over the Globe, some of the Quarterly Earnings on which focus has to be given are:

FRANCE: Danone SA

U.S.: Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, U.S. Bancorp, The Coca-Cola Co, BlackRock Inc, Intel Corp and Yahoo! Inc.

INDIA: RIL and Sabero Organics

Some of the Economic Happenings on which a Glance is necessary are:

EUROPE: Global Trade Balance for the month of February, Consumer Price Index for the month of March (MoM) & (YoY), Producer Price Index for the month of March (MoM) & (YoY), Retail Price Index for the month of March (MoM) & (YoY) and ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment & Current Situation for the month of April.

U.S.: Consumer Price Index for the month of March (MoM) & (YoY), Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the month of March.

Still, for the overall market a very cautious approach of TRADING is recommended, as INDIA is facing Political Uncertainty as well Fund Outflow from FIIs through ETFs and even Global Economic Scenario is again getting worsen, whether it be EUROPE or The U.S. Small and quick profits should be booked either on Short side or on Long side. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to make good use of their money and hunt on for Jewels which are right now trading either at their 52-week’s low level or at the life time low levels.

NIFTY is trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5641.66, 5785.51 and 5653.81, respectively on the closing basis. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now reverting from their oversold zone. 

What does Indicators Say?  

                                        
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 40.46 and 37.19, respectively. The indicator is now reverting from its oversold zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 105.06 and 92.61, respectively. The indicator is now reverting from its oversold zone.  

3. +DI: 18.18, -DI: 29.24, ADX: 27.65: The Negative Directional Index is trading above the Positive Directional Index, and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY closed below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5641.665785.51 and 5653.81, respectively on the closing basis.

Some Trading Stats of Monday’s (15th April, 2013) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 418.37 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by FIIs and Net Buying of Rs. 297.18 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by DIIs was witnessed on Monday’s’s Trading Session.

NIFTY APR FUTURE ended at a Discount of 0.35 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TODAY:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1320/1330, if crosses the level of 1300.
BANKBARODA:     Can touch the levels of 695/700, if crosses the level of 680.
BPCL:                     Can touch the levels of 405/412, if crosses the level of 396.
NMDC:               Can touch the levels of 131.20/132, if crosses the level of 129.
ONGC:                   Can touch the levels of 326/330, if crosses the level of 320.
PNB:                     Can touch the levels of 748/752, if crosses the level of 735-736.
RELIANCE:            Can touch the levels of 805/810, if crosses the level of 795.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (SPOT) comes at 5580 / 5620 / 5645 levels. At the same time, 5530 / 5500 / 5475 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 5580 / 5620 / 5650 levels. At the same time, 5535 / 5490 / 5460 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for BANK NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 11650 / 11730 / 11820 levels. At the same time, 11400 / 11300 / 11190 will act as major intraday support levels.

Pre Market Call:

PFC: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 195 for the TARGETS of 198/200, with the STRICT SL of 193.

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