Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Nifty Outlook for 18th April 2013



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Short Black Candlestick Pattern, signaling as possible consolidation in the markets. NIFTY made a positive opening of almost 20 points, marking it above the levels of 5700. Till the first half of trading session, NIFTY maintained the levels of 5700 and traded above it marking a high of 5732.15 for the day. But in the second half of trading session, NIFTY reverted form its day’s high level and dipped to the day’s low of 5669. Rally in Rate Sensitive Counters like BANKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA, AUTO and CEMENT cooled off a bit. Apart, from all these counters PHARMA Sector also witnessed a good Buying interest. IT Sector was the biggest loser for the day. Finally, for the day, NIFTY closed at 5688.70, just below the levels of 5700 and maintaining the support level of 5660. It was a kind of sluggish session, as buying interest was seen in only some of the Counters. On, the other hand a very volatile trading was being witnessed in the Broader Market.

Technically, a Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the Low of 4770.35 (04th June, 2012) to the High marked 6111.80 by NIFTY (29th January, 2013). NIFTY made a high of 5699.25 on 16th April, 2013 and surpassed the levels of 5599.37 (38.20% Level of Retracement). This level was acting as a very strong resistance for NIFTY on the closing basis, but now NIFTY has crossed it on closing basis. Now, the level of 5795 (23.60% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. The levels of 5441.08 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY is now trading above its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA, but at the same time it is trading below its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) on the closing basis. NIFTY is now trading below all its Moving Averages.

As predicted earlier too, “The 20-Days EMA as well as the 200-Days SMA are acting as a good resistance for it right now on closing basis. Unless NIFTY closes above these levels with smart gains, even a short-term pull-back cannot be expected.” NIFTY has crossed these two averages on 16th April, 2013 on closing basis and also the 20-days EMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-Days SMA from downside, which is again another Bullish Signal, confirmation of which is still awaited. When a Short Term Moving Average crosses a Longer Term Moving Average from downside, it is considered to be a Bullish Signal. Now, the level of 5800/5850 can be touched by NIFTY if it sustains above 5650, as predicted earlier – “NIFTY is range bound currently. 5600 – 5480 is the range in which it is trading between, a decisive move above or below this range will decide the direction of the market.”

As, Earnings Season has begun all over the Globe, some of the Quarterly Earnings on which focus has to be given are:

FRANCE: Carrefour SA and L’Oreal SA.

U.S.: Philip Morris International Inc, PepsiCo Inc, morgan Stanley, Ultratech Inc, Blackstone Group LP and Microsoft Corp.

INDIA: CRISIL, Essar Ports, Indusind bank, MRF, Tinplate Co and VST Industries.
Some of the Economic Happenings on which a Glance is necessary are:

CHINA: House Price Index.

U.K.: Retail Sales for the month of March (MoM) & (YoY).

INDIA: Trade Deficit Government for the month of March.

U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for the month of April and EIA Natural Gas Storage Change.

Still, for the overall market a very cautious approach of TRADING is recommended, as INDIA is facing Political Uncertainty as well Fund Outflow from FIIs through ETFs and even Global Economic Scenario is again getting worsen, whether it be EUROPE or The U.S. Small and quick profits should be booked either on Short side or on Long side. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to make good use of their money and hunt on for Jewels which are right now trading either at their 52-week’s low level or at the life time low levels.

What does Indicators Say?  

                                        
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 51.01 and 42.17, respectively. The indicator is now heading towards its Overbought Zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 89.24 and 92.77, respectively. The indicator is now is now heading towards its Overbought Zone.  

3. +DI: 26.60, -DI: 24.20, ADX: 24.24: The Positive Directional Index has moved above the Negative Directional Index, and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY is now trading above its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5650.21 and 5659.25, respectively, but at the same time it is trading below its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5773.34 on the closing basis.

Some Trading Stats of Wednesday’s (17th April, 2013) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 206.68 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by FIIs and Net Selling of Rs. 260.93 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by DIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

NIFTY APR FUTURE ended at a Premium of 5.50 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TODAY:

AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 190/192, if crosses the level of 187.30.
CIPLA:              Can touch the levels of 410/412, if crosses the level of 402.
M&M:               Can touch the levels of 900/905, if crosses the level of 880-881.
SESAGOA:        Can touch the levels of 152.80/154, if crosses the level of 149.60.

RELIANCE:        Can dip to the levels of 760/752, if crosses the level of 770.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (SPOT) comes at 5720 / 5760 / 5790 levels. At the same time, 5660 / 5630 / 5600 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 5725 / 5750 / 5790 levels. At the same time, 5675 / 5650 / 5620 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for BANK NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 12130 / 12280 / 12330 levels. At the same time, 11870 / 11785 / 11700 will act as major intraday support levels.

Pre Market Calls:

JISLJALEQS: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 60.50 for the TARGETS of 61.80/62.80, with the STRICT SL of 59.70.

UNIPHOS: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 126 for the TARGETS of 128.60/130.50, with the STRICT SL of 124.60.  

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