Sunday, April 21, 2013

Nifty Outlook for 22nd April 2013



On Thursday, NIFTY made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick Pattern, signaling that the day opened and then the prices continued to go up all day long without coming below the opening level thus forming a long white body, however prices did not close at the high of the day and thus they created an upper shadow. It was a typical bull day and strength of the bulls is enough to cause some concern among the bears. NIFTY made a flat start for the trading session on Thursday. With the extension of trading session, NIFTY also extended its gains and marched towards the levels of 5794.35 (day’s high), surpassing crucial resistance level of 5750. It didn’t even looked back for a while for even a bit of profit taking, as it has been gaining height since last three trading sessions. Investors continued to hunt for fundamentally strong but oversold stocks. Investor’s risk-appetite was firm after prices of global commodities such as Brent crude and gold slipped further, which will help to reduce the burgeoning current account deficit (CAD). Sentiments also got a boost after country’s trade data showed that the exports grew for the third month in a row, rising by 6.97% in March though on an annual basis it declined 1.76% to $300.6 billion in 2012-13. Exports in March increased to $30.8 billion compared to $28.8 billion in the same month of previous year. The robust move in NIFTY was again supported by the Rate Sensitive Sectors like, BANKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA and AUTO. Rally in rate sensitive too buttressed the sentiments triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut its key policy rate viz. the repo rate to boost growth amid slowing wholesale price inflation. Other gainers for the day were METALS & MINING and FMCG Sectors. Finally, for the day, NIFTY closed at 5783.10, maintain the levels of 5750 on the downside.

Technically, a Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the Low of 4770.35 (04th June, 2012) to the High marked 6111.80 by NIFTY (29th January, 2013). NIFTY made a high of 5794.35 on 18th April, 2013 and surpassed the levels of 5795.22 (23.60% Level of Retracement) in the intraday trading, but not on the Closing Basis. Now, the level of 5599.37 (38.20% Level of Retracement) is the next support level to be tested by NIFTY.

NIFTY has now crossed all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA on 18th April, 2013 on closing basis and also the 20-days EMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-Days SMA from downside, which is again another Bullish Signal, confirmation of which is still awaited. When a Short Term Moving Average crosses a Longer Term Moving Average from downside, it is considered to be a Bullish Signal. Now, the level of 5850/5890 can be touched by NIFTY if it sustains above 5680.

As, Earnings Season has begun all over the Globe, some of the Quarterly Earnings on which focus has to be given are:

U.K.: Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC.

U.S.: Caterpillar Inc

INDIA: Cairn India, Mahindra Lifespace, Mindtree, Persistent Systems, Swaraj Engines, Tamilnadu PetroProducts, Tata Sponge, Ultratech Cement and Zensar Technologies.

Some of the Economic Happenings on which a Glance is necessary are:

EUROPE: Current Account for the month of February (YoY) and Consumer Confidence for the month of April, House Price Index.

U.S.: Existing Home Sales for the month of March (MoM)

Still, for the overall market a very cautious approach of TRADING is recommended, as INDIA is facing Political Uncertainty as well Fund Outflow from FIIs through ETFs and even Global Economic Scenario is again getting worsen, whether it be EUROPE or The U.S. Small and quick profits should be booked either on Short side or on Long side. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to make good use of their money and hunt on for Jewels which are right now trading either at their 52-week’s low level or at the life time low levels.

What does Indicators Say?  

                                        
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 57.81 and 45.30, respectively. The indicator is now heading towards its Overbought Zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 80.20 and 90.26, respectively. The indicator is now is now heading towards its Overbought Zone.  

3. +DI: 29.36, -DI: 21.87, ADX: 23.55: The Positive Directional Index has moved above the Negative Directional Index, signaling a Buyer's bias Market movement and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY is now trading above all its Moving Averages, on the closing basis. The 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) are trading at 5662.87, 5661.77 and 5769.87 levels, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of Thursday’s (18th April, 2013) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 940.07 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by FIIs and Net Selling of Rs. 405.22 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by DIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

NIFTY APR FUTURE ended at a Discount of 0.10 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TODAY:

ACC:                Can touch the levels of 1225/1235, if crosses the level of 1210.
AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 193.50/194, if crosses the level of 190.
AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1450/1460, if crosses the level of 1430.
BHARTIARTL:    Can touch the levels of 306/310, if crosses the level of 300.
HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 96/96.20, if crosses the level of 94.
LT:                  Can touch the levels of 1510/1520, if crosses the level of 1480.
RANBAXY:        Can touch the levels of 465/470, if crosses the level of 455-456.

HCLTECH:         Can dip to the levels of 721/715, if crosses the level of 736.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (SPOT) comes at 5800 / 5820 / 5850 levels. At the same time, 5750 / 5720 / 5680 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 5820 / 5850 / 5880 levels. At the same time, 5750 / 5720 / 5680 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for BANK NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 12370 / 12450 / 12530 levels. At the same time, 11925 / 11850 / 11780 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 5850 & 5930 levels. At the same time, 5560 & 5475 will act as major support levels. 

Pre Market Call:

UCOBANK: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 64.30 for the TARGETS of 66/66.80, with the STRICT SL of 63.50.

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