Nifty Outlook for 23rd April 2013

Yesterday, NIFTY made a Short White Candlestick Pattern, signaling a relatively weak buying pressure with little price movement. NIFTY made a flat start for the trading session and with the extension of trading session, NIFTY also extended its gains and marched towards the levels of 5844.85 (day’s high), surpassing crucial resistance level of 5800, but it could not cross the crucial resistance mark of 5850 neither in intraday nor on closing basis. A bit of profit booking was witnessed in the Markets, which dipped the NIFTY to 5815 levels, maintaining the level of 5800, supported by buying in CAPITAL GOODS and METAL & MINING Counters. After a cautious start, markets soon entered into green terrain with investors turning optimistic after data showed that foreign funds remained net buyers of Indian stocks on April 18, 2013. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 940.07 crore on Thursday. Buoyed by firm global cues, key domestic benchmarks showcased an enthusiastic performance on first day of F&O expiry week of April series. NIFTY conquered its crucial 5,800 bastion, hitting its highest level in almost five weeks, supported by rally in Rate Sensitive Sectors such as BANKING, RELATY & INFRA and AUTO amid hopes that the central bank would ease monetary policy more aggressively next month to boost growth into the Asia’s third-biggest economy. Other major gainers were the POWER and FMCG Sectors, while IT Sector was the lone loser for the day. Finally, for the day, NIFTY closed at 5834.40, maintaining the levels of 5800 on the downside.

Technically, a Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the Low of 4770.35 (04^th June, 2012) to the High marked 6111.80 by NIFTY (29^th January, 2013). NIFTY made a high of 5844.85 on 22^nd April, 2013 and surpassed the levels of 5795.22 (23.60% Level of Retracement) on closing basis after getting closed at 5834.40 levels. Now, the level of 5795.22 (23.60% Level of Retracement) is acting as the next immediate support level to be tested by NIFTY.

NIFTY has now crossed all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA since 18^th April, 2013 on closing basis and also the 20-days EMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-Days SMA from downside, which is again another Bullish Signal, confirmation of which has been attained yesterday on the charts. When a Short Term Moving Average crosses a Longer Term Moving Average from downside, it is considered to be a Bullish Signal. Now, the level of 5850/5890 can be touched by NIFTY if it sustains above 5680.

As, Earnings Season has begun all over the Globe, some of the Quarterly Earnings on which focus has to be given are:

U.S.: Xerox Corp, Delta Air Lines Inc, Apple Inc and Hanesbrands Inc.

INDIA: AP Paper, ASSAMCO, Binani Industries, Coromandel International, HDFC Bank, Indiabulls Securities and Mahindra & Mahindra Finance.

Some of the Economic Happenings on which a Glance is necessary are:

CHINA: HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the month of April.

EUROPE: Business Climate, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI, Consumer Confidence for the month of April,  Trade Balance non-EU for the month of March and House Price Index for Q1 (QoQ).

U.S.: Retail Sales for the month of February (MoM), Markit Manufacturing PMI for the month of April, Housing Price Index for the month of February and New Home Sales for the month of March (MoM).

Still, for the overall market a very cautious approach of TRADING is recommended, as INDIA is facing Political Uncertainty as well Fund Outflow from FIIs through ETFs and even Global Economic Scenario is again getting worsen, whether it be EUROPE or The U.S. Small and quick profits should be booked either on Short side or on Long side. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to make good use of their money and hunt on for Jewels which are right now trading either at their 52-week’s low level or at the life time low levels. 

What does Indicators Say?  

                                        

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 60.98 and 48.43, respectively. The indicator is now heading towards its Overbought Zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 63.68 and 84.94, respectively. The indicator is now is now heading towards its Overbought Zone.  

3. +DI: 32.18, -DI: 20.70, ADX: 23.42: The Positive Directional Index has moved above the Negative Directional Index, signaling a Buyer's bias Market movement and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is now trading above all its Moving Averages, on the closing basis. The 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) are trading at 5679.20, 5664.54 and 5767.37 levels, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of Monday’s (22^nd April, 2013) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 915.82 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by FIIs and Net Selling of Rs. 442.54 Crore in NSE, BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment by DIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

NIFTY APR FUTURE ended at a Discount of 1.55 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TODAY:

BPCL:               Can touch the levels of 422/425, if crosses the level of 415.

COALINDIA:      Can touch the levels of 320/322, if crosses the level of 313.

DLF:                 Can touch the levels of 258/260, if crosses the level of 252.

GRASIM:            Can touch the levels of 2880/2890, if crosses the level of 2840.

HEROMOTOCO: Can touch the levels of 1550/1560, if crosses the level of 1530.

HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 97.60/98.20, if crosses the level of 95.70.

JINDALSTEL:     Can touch the levels of 350/352, if crosses the level of 342-343.

LT:                  Can touch the levels of 1555/1565, if crosses the level of 1540.

RELINFRA:        Can touch the levels of 392/395, if crosses the level of 384.

TATASTEEL:     Can touch the levels of 315/320, if crosses the level of 308.

AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 1415/1405, if breaches the level of 1430.

HCLTECH:         Can dip to the levels of 705/700, if breaches the level of 720.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (SPOT) comes at 5850 / 5880 / 5915 levels. At the same time, 5820 / 5795 / 5775 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 5850 / 5880 / 5925 levels. At the same time, 5815 / 5790 / 5760 will act as major intraday support levels.

For the day, intraday resistance for BANK NIFTY (FUTURE) comes at 12650 / 12740 / 12820 levels. At the same time, 12400 / 12320 / 12250 will act as major intraday support levels.

Pre Market Calls:

ADANIENT: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 225 for the TARGETS of 230/232, with the STRICT SL of 222.

GESHIP: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 215 for the TARGETS of 220/224, with the STRICT SL of 212.50.